After competitive qualifying stages across North America, Europe and Asia – the Overwatch World Cup has reached the quarter-final stage. Which nations will progress to the semi-finals? Could there be an upset? Who will take the lion share of the $488,000 prize pool? Read on to inform your Overwatch World Cup predictions.
Overwatch World Cup: Competition format
The group stage consisted of the top 24 ranked teams based on Skill Rating (SR) split into four groups of six.
The top two teams from each group have advanced to the eight team single-elimination playoff. The first-place teams from each group has been matched randomly against a second-place team from another group. The Tournament Finals will take place at BlizzCon in Anaheim, CA.
Here’s how the odds look for the outright winner of the Overwatch World Cup:
The quarter-final match-ups are as follows:
• South Korea vs. Australia
• China vs. Finland
• United States vs. United Kingdom
• France vs. Canada
Who are the favourites?
South Korea
South Korea (1.420*) earned the joint best record in qualification with a 19-2 Game Result (GR) and a 5-0 Match Result (MR).
Barring their loss to Finland, South Korea won their other games against Japan, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong and Russia 4-0 in a dominating fashion. It was the Finnish who narrowly defeated South Korea in two out of the five maps.
In JJoNak and Carpe, South Korea boast the third and fourth highest ranked Overwatch players across all platforms which has helped guide their nation to the quarter-final stage with some impressive performances.
One cause for encouragement for the other teams involved could be targeting Rialto as a map where South Korea may struggle. They lost Rialto 3-2 to Finland and only just beat Hong Kong (a team that failed to win any map overall against any other nation) in the same map 3-2.
South Korea are favourites for a reason, they have won the last two Overwatch World Cups and will be determined to make it three in a row in November.
United States
The US (4.730*) will be confident of going deep into the competition after a very strong showing in qualification.
After dispatching Austria, Switzerland and Norway 4-0, United States dropped a game each against Brazil and Canada winning both of those matches 3-1. The US boast a highly-ranked squad, with Offence player Sinatraa and Flex players Space and Super all in the top 50 Overwatch players in the community.
Temple of Anubis and Junkertown were the maps where the US came unstuck in qualifying, so expect rival teams to target them as a source of a potential victory against a very highly skilled US team.
Outsiders with a chance
Finland
Team Finland (13.270*) put on an impressive showing in qualification with a GR of 16-4 and a MR 4-1 – with the only match loss coming against favourites South Korea.
That being said, Finland only narrowly lost against South Korea, winning 3-2 on both King’s Row and Rialto before eventually losing the tiebreaker map Nepal 2-1.
Offence player Taimou was particularly impressive during qualifying due in part to being aided by his team members protecting him effectively. As a result, he did a lot of damage playing as Widow in the match-up on Kings Row against South Korea.
Fragi’s tank performance as Reinhart will also be a cause for concern for other teams, as his dominating showing on Rialto against South Korea to send the match to a tiebreaker was very impressive, notching a 10 kill streak in the last few seconds of the game.
Canada
With a near perfect record in qualifying, the Canadians (14.370*) only came unstuck against one of the outright favourites, the USA, losing 3-1. In their other group games however, Canada dominated with 4-0 victories against Brazil, Austria, Norway and Switzerland.
Despite not having a particularly high ranked Overwatch team in terms of its members, team Canada have gelled well thus far and could cause an upset in the later rounds if they win their evenly contested match-up against France.
Canada made it all the way to the Grand Final last year before being defeated by eventual Champions South Korea, so their odds of 4.290* to reach the final once again could offer value to bettors.
France
Despite being ranked as 5th favourites for the World Cup, France (18.780*) were tremendous in qualifying – matching South Korea’s GR and MR record of 19-2 and 5-0 MR - setting a marker down of their intentions going forward.
After putting Italy, Poland and the Netherlands to the sword (defeating them all 4-0), France did find trouble defeating Germany, where they lost both games 4-3 and 5-4 but did win the other three maps to take the overall match 3-2.
South Korea are favourites for a reason, they have won the last two Overwatch World Cups and will be determined to make it three in a row in November.
With Canada their opponents in the quarter-final stage, a team that is similar to them in terms of ability and with an inferior record in qualification, the French will fancy themselves as likely to make it to the semi-final stage.
If they did make the semis, it would be against either Finland or China – both of whom will be a real challenge to defeat. If you think France have the potential to beat either of those teams to make it to the final, they are currently priced at 6.490* to do so.
Can anyone cause a major upset?
China
After experiencing Visa issues that forced them to change more than half their roster in 2017, all members of China’s team successfully secured themselves entry to compete at Blizzcon for the quarter-finals after topping their qualification group. They are now available at 37.560* to win the Overwatch World Cup.
Despite winning all five of their group games, they did lose seven games in total - the worst of any team to finish first in their group. They narrowly overcame Thailand, Denmark and fellow qualifiers Australia 3-2 in hard fought contests.
China may be seen one of the weaker sides in the quarter-finals but ‘clutch’ performances they put in to win all three close match-ups suggests they know how to get the job done when under intense pressure. They face a tough quarter-final match-up against Finland in their next round and will need to be performing at a high level to progress.
United Kingdom
The UK team (45.310*) performed admirably in qualification, and actually posted a better Game Result (15-5) than China did, as they won their games against Italy, the Netherlands and Poland 4-0 along with a 3-1 victory against Germany.
It was the match against France on day three of qualifying where the UK weren’t able to carry their good form into the encounter (perhaps because they had already qualified) as France beat them 4-0.
United Kingdom face United States in the quarters in what will be very tough match-up for them, especially with the talent the USA have at their disposal in comparison to the UK.
Australia
Propping up the seedings as the lowest ranked side left in the competition, Australia (56.350*) made it through despite having the same Match Result as Denmark and Sweden (they qualified based on their Game Result record).
That being said, Australia did put in some impressive 4-0 performances against Thailand and Sweden and were only narrowly defeated by eventual group winners China 3-2.
Ironically Denmark inflicted their worst defeat in qualification losing 3-1 but as their GR of 14-7 trumped the Danish’s GR of 12-9, the Aussies advance to the knockout round. In South Korea, they will be facing the hardest team possible and it would take a massive upset for them to advance past the knockout rounds.
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