Heroic favoured in Pinnacle Cup Championship Predictions

Heading into the Pinnacle Cup Championship

CS:GO invitational tournament, the Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022, will take place from June 8 to June 11 in Lund, Sweden. The invited teams include Heroic, Astralis, Imperial Esports, BIG, MIBR, Evil Geniuses, Fnatic, and Team Finest (who are replacing the disbanded Copenhagen Flames). Four of the teams participated in the IEM Dallas tournament, which finished just before the start of Pinnacle Cup Championship, but the early predictions indicate there could be some surprises reserved for the Lund matchups.

Accuscore projects a Heroic win

The clear favourites to win the tournament are the team currently ranked #4, Heroic. The odds for the Danish team to win are 2.410*, indicating a probability of 41.5%. Heroic did well in their last major tournament in Antwerp, losing 2-1 in the quarter-finals to eventual runners-up NAVI. Their win percentage over the last three months is a respectable 70% and they’ve recently lost BO3 matches only to ENCE and NAVI – neither of whom will take part in the Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022. Accuscore’s simulation engine has Heroic as the most probable winners of the tournament, but not even close to the probability indicated by the odds. According to Accuscore’s predictions, Heroic’s probability to win the Pinnacle Cup Championship is 31%.

Closing in on the heavy favourites are two challengers: Astralis and BIG. Astralis, who have now fallen to 12th in the rankings, have gone through some major changes during the past year. Their performance at the PGL Major Antwerp tournament was disappointing and losses to Team Vitality, Team Spirit, and Team Liquid in the Challengers Stage cut Astralis’ tournament short. Astralis are at odds of 4.670* to win the Pinnacle Cup Championship, indicating a probability of 21.4%. Accuscore is giving Astralis a 20% chance at the moment, largely due to not being able to get out of the group stage in Dallas but they could offer value for making the final according to Pinnacle’s odds (1.934*).

BIG are another team who have somewhat fallen from grace. Their core players have all been with the team for more than two years, but other player changes they have made have not worked out as expected and BIG have stumbled in all the major events this year, dropping down the rankings to 16th. Their win percentage is still a decent 65.2% over the past three months, but in the final stage of the PGL Major Antwerp tournament, they lost to NAVI, FURIA, and Team Vitality, despite their encouraging performance in the qualifying stage. BIG could cause a serious threat after reaching the semi-finals in Dallas, but currently their odds for winning the Pinnacle Cup Championship are 4.400* (22.7%), which is very close to Accuscore’s prediction of 21%.

Possible contenders

Completing the top four contenders for the Pinnacle Cup Championship is the Brazilian team Imperial Esports, consisting of experienced former SK Gaming and MIBR core players. Imperial Esports entered the scene with a bang some three months ago and have taken some impressive wins since then – albeit mostly over lower-tier teams. The performance against top-tier teams is still in question, but they did beat the likes of MIBR, Team Liquid, Cloud9, and forZe in the qualifiers for IEM and the PGL Antwerp Challengers stage. Their win rate is 64.7% over the past three months, but playing against teams from the North American region has definitely helped. Imperial Esports had an underwhelming time in Dallas but do find themselves at odds of 6.670* to win the Pinnacle Cup Championship 2022 with Pinnacle, indicating a 15% probability, while Accuscore is less impressed, giving the Brazilians a winning probability of 11%.

The rest of the teams – Fnatic, MIBR, Team Finest, and Evil Geniuses are quite some way behind the four favourites according to the simulations. Fnatic’s line-up is still in question; their academy team has done well but it is uncertain who will be playing in June. Due to the “reset”, there’s not much data on this Fnatic team; however, the odds for Fnatic to win the tournament are 12.310* (8.1%) due to the team’s long history of success – but as long as the line-up is uncertain, Accuscore has a 6.0% probability.

Talking about resets always brings to mind MIBR, who seemingly always have something changing. The newest member has been in the line-up for barely two weeks; however, the team’s performances have been decent and their win rate over the past three months is 75.7%. However, playing second-tier teams has inflated that number and their record against top-tier teams has been less than impressive since beating NAVI at the end of January in a BO1 Blast tournament. It is difficult to predict any success for MIBR and their current odds to win the Pinnacle Cup Championship are 18.500* (5.4%), with Accuscore even more critical, giving them only a 5% chance.

The newest addition to the participant list at the Championship are the Pinnacle Cup IV winners, Team Finest, who are replacing Copenhagen Flames. Finest have risen the rankings fast, and are currently in 31st place, but their history against the better teams – some of whom are participating in this tournament – is non-existent. However, there is a bit of a home advantage for the Swedish/Israeli organisation, which consists of three Swedish players including former NIP and Fnatic star Simon “twist” Eliasson, and they might just have some aces up their sleeve. At least the team is a big unknown for their opponents and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder with nothing to lose. Team Finest are at similar odds to win the tournament as Evil Geniuses – 22.560* (4.4%) and Accuscore is very much in agreement on their chances, giving them a winning probability of 4%.

Last and most likely the least is a team from America that have been undergoing constant changes. Evil Geniuses are ranked 39th at the moment with very few successes even among the second-tier teams. Their win rate for past three months is only 40% and they have not won a match against a top team in ages. While their core players are performing decently, the teamwork is still lacking and the results are very bad. Their odds of 22.560* indicate a winning probability of 4.4% and Accuscore makes an even crueler prediction, handing EG a 2.0% chance to win the tournament.

*Odds are subject to change.